European data is weaker again
Gold dipped below $1,900
Markets await Fed’s meeting
The dollar hit a five-year high yesterday as market participants await the Federal Reserve next week which is expected to hike rates. Meanwhile, the euro weakened on growth concerns after Russia cut off gas supplies to parts of the region.
The Fed is expected to increase rates by 50 basis points at its May 3-4 meeting and in June and July. Additionally, the greenback has also benefited from global growth concerns as Europe struggles with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China enacts lockdowns in a bid to stem the spread of COVID-19.
The euro fell 0.83% to $1.0549 reaching its weakest since March 2017. The common currency has fallen 4.7% so far in April and is set for its worst monthly loss in more than seven years.
Furthermore, on Wednesday, Germany’s economy ministry cut its economic growth forecast for 2022 to 2.2% from its late January prediction of 3.6% growth this year. Also, French consumer confidence fell more than expected in April.
The stronger dollar also blunted an attempted bounce for the yen, which had seen some support from safety flows and positioning for the risk of a policy shift.
The yen last traded at 128.09 per dollar, after hitting a 20-year low of 129.4 last week. Investors anticipate if the Bank of Japan will make any changes to its yield curve control policy to stem yen weakness when it concludes its two-day meeting on Thursday.
The Australian dollar touched its lowest level since February but caught some wind after Australian consumer prices surged at their fastest annual pace in two decades, spurring speculation that interest rates could be lifted from record lows as soon as next week. The Aussie was up 0.08% at $0.7131.
U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday as a strong earnings report from Microsoft late Tuesday helped stop the rout in technology stocks.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, while the S&P 500 was up 0.7% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.7%.
Tech stocks tumbled 4% on Tuesday as fears of a global economic slowdown gripped the market, dragging the Nasdaq to its lowest level since 2020.
Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up during the early trades as China pledged further economic support. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.51% while China’s Shanghai Composite was up 0.49%.
Chinese stocks traded in the U.S. also rose to their highest level since early April 2022, after China’s State Council pledged at its latest meeting to stabilize employment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.62% with industrial production increasing 0.3% month-on-month and retail sales rising 0.9% year-on-year in March 2022. The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.92%, as Australia released retail sales figures earlier in the day.
Gold futures gained 0.56% to $1,878.10 after hitting their lowest price in two months. Gold has been holding very well above $1,900 but falls under pressure from the expectations of the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in the following week.
According to the World Gold Council, Global demand for gold surged in the first quarter of 2022 to the highest in over three years, driven by investors worried about the war in Ukraine and inflationary pressures.
Similarly, silver inched down 0.1% and platinum eased 0.4% to $914.17, while palladium jumped 1.2%.
Oil prices rose for the second day in a row on Wednesday after data showed weekly consumption of fuels in the United States offset builds in crude.
A soaring dollar capped the market’s gains. China’s grappling with new coronavirus cases also clouded the economic outlook for the world’s biggest importer of crude oil. Brent crude settled up 0.3%, at $105.32 a barrel.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled up 0.3% at $102.02 per barrel and WTI rose 3.2% on Tuesday, after a 2% slide in the previous session took the U.S. crude benchmark to a two-week low of $95.28.
要点速览： 中东紧张局势升级，美国威胁对伊朗动武，国际油价应声上涨，布伦特原油突破77美元关口 美联储议息会议后美元走强，黄金价格承压回落 美元指数小幅反弹，重新站上99.00关键位 美联储维持4.25%-4.50%利率不变，但预警2025年滞胀风险 日本核心通胀创两年新高，央行加息预期升温 布伦特原油突破77美元/桶大关，创2月以来新高 本周国际油价剧烈震荡，中东冲突升级引发市场对区域性供应中断的担忧。分析师预警：若伊朗石油出口受阻，布伦特原油或飙升至90美元/桶；若霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁，更可能暴涨至120-130美元/桶——该海峡承担着全球原油运输要冲，一旦关闭将重创供应链。 周中传出伊朗寻求停火协议的消息，地缘政治风险溢价略有回落。截至周末，油价企稳于76.50-77美元区间，反映投资者在局势不明朗下的审慎态度。 鉴于冲突持续发酵，建议密切关注： 中东军事动态 霍尔木兹海峡安全威胁 外交谈判进展 三大关键变量局势任何风吹草动都可能引发油市新一轮风暴。 美联储主席鲍威尔警告2025年通胀恐再度攀升…
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要点速览： 随着中东局势升级，油价大幅攀升 受政治与经济不确定性影响，避险需求激增，金价突破3440美元 比特币再度突破11万美元后，受地缘政治紧张局势影响下跌 美国通胀数据低于预期 由于裁员与关税不确定性，英国经济在4月份出现萎缩 油价升至2月以来最高水平 在本周一系列地缘政治冲突升级的背景下，油价于周五早盘飙升逾13%，源于以色列对伊朗发动空袭。西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨9.66%，至每桶74.65美元，布伦特原油上涨9.27%，至每桶75.78美元，均创下自2020年以来的最大单日涨幅。受此影响，油价触及今年2月初以来的最高水平，随后价格有所回落。 市场担忧，若伊朗对以色列或美国实施报复，可能导致原油供应中断。此次事件凸显了此前被市场低估的地缘政治风险，并有可能进一步升级。 中东局势若持续紧张，布伦特原油价格可能升至75至80美元区间。投资者也在关注OPEC+的产量变动，进一步的增产或可抑制油价突破80美元大关。 避险需求激增，金价突破3440美元 中东地区的地缘政治动荡推高了金价。在以色列对伊朗发动空袭后，避险需求骤增，金价飙升至每盎司3423美元，创下自5月初以来的最高水平。与此同时，美国通胀数据低迷及就业市场降温也为贵金属价格提供了支撑。 此外，美国就业数据也令金价波动。强劲的非农就业数据公布后，金价一度下跌逾1%，降至每盎司3316美元左右，随后对贵金属的买盘再度增强，金价回升。 随着中东局势持续紧张，若冲突进一步升级，金价或将重返3450美元，甚至有望冲击历史新高3500美元。若金价强势突破3417美元，有望打开进一步上涨空间。下周美联储政策声明若有意外之举，可能引发金价剧烈波动；同时，美元走弱也将进一步支撑金价。 比特币徘徊在历史高位附近…
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