Market worries about oil supply
Gold safety is dimmed
Yen might reach 135
COVID-19 hits harder in China
The dollar held near a two-year peak on Tuesday as concerns about the economic impact of China’s COVID-19 lockdowns held up the greenback’s safe-haven appeal and aggressive U.S. interest rate hike expectations kept bond yields elevated. The dollar index was 0.13% lower at 101.59 after hitting a two-year peak of 101.86 overnight. It has gained 3.3% this month, its largest month of gains since November 2015.
Hawkish comments by central bank policymakers raised the prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes. The most powerful came from the U.S. Federal Reserve, which markets expect to raise rates by a half-point at each of its next two meetings.
The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates for the fourth meeting in a row. Meanwhile, investors focus on its signals about further increases in borrowing costs after that.
Last month, the BoE softened its language on the need for more policy tightening. But financial markets still expect the BoE to raise interest rates to around 2.25% by the end of this year, three times their current level.
The pound was at $1.2744, up 1.8%, having hit its lowest since September 2020 overnight. U.S. futures market data shows funds have amassed their biggest wager against the pound since October 2019, a bet now worth close to $5 billion.
The dollar was little changed against the yen at 128.16. The Japanese currency has managed a very slight recovery this week from last week’s 20-year low of 129.40.
Market participants expect that the Japanese government may directly intervene in currency markets to stop a further slide in the currency from around a 20-year low against the dollar.
While Japanese households are suffering from a rise in fuel prices while the weaker yen increases the cost of consumption. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is also expected to announce measures to alleviate some inflation pain.
The S&P 500 moved in negative territory for much of the session but extended gains after Twitter’s announcement. The S&P 500 growth index ended up over 1% bouncing back from an earlier decline. Nearly a third of S&P 500 index firms are due to report this week. Of the 102 companies in the S&P 500 that posted earnings so far, 77.5% reported above expectations.
Dow Jones gained 0.7% to 34,049.46 points; S&P 500 gained 0.57% to 4,296.12 while Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.29% to 13,004.85.
Asia Pacific equities traded up in general during the early session. However, market participants continue to figure out the risks emanating from China’s latest COVID-19 outbreak and aggressive U.S. Federal Reserve monetary-policy tightening.
China’s Shanghai Composite was up 0.37% while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.57%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.93% while the Australian ASX 200 slid 1.97%, with markets re-opening after a holiday.
The Bank of Japan will hand down its monetary policy decision on Thursday. However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.45%
Gold rose on Tuesday as the dollar edged lower, with palladium also rebounding after concerns over reduced demand due to COVID lockdowns in China drove prices to a near one-month low in the previous session.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,903.97 per ounce, after hitting its lowest level since March 29 in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% at $1,903.70.
Spot silver gained 0.8% to $23.79 per ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $930.87, and palladium advanced 2.8% to $2,203.25.
Oil prices hopped on Tuesday, settling after a sharp fall of 4% in the earlier session. Meanwhile, worries over China’s fuel demand were soothed by the central bank’s pledge to support an economy hit by renewed COVID-19 curbs. However, market participants believe that phasing out of Russian oil from the market would continue to support prices.
Brent crude futures were up 0.58% at $102.91 a barrel after rising to $103.93 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate contracts were up 0.35% at $98.88 per barrel after rising to $99.82 a barrel in early trade.
要点速览： 中东紧张局势升级，美国威胁对伊朗动武，国际油价应声上涨，布伦特原油突破77美元关口 美联储议息会议后美元走强，黄金价格承压回落 美元指数小幅反弹，重新站上99.00关键位 美联储维持4.25%-4.50%利率不变，但预警2025年滞胀风险 日本核心通胀创两年新高，央行加息预期升温 布伦特原油突破77美元/桶大关，创2月以来新高 本周国际油价剧烈震荡，中东冲突升级引发市场对区域性供应中断的担忧。分析师预警：若伊朗石油出口受阻，布伦特原油或飙升至90美元/桶；若霍尔木兹海峡遭封锁，更可能暴涨至120-130美元/桶——该海峡承担着全球原油运输要冲，一旦关闭将重创供应链。 周中传出伊朗寻求停火协议的消息，地缘政治风险溢价略有回落。截至周末，油价企稳于76.50-77美元区间，反映投资者在局势不明朗下的审慎态度。 鉴于冲突持续发酵，建议密切关注： 中东军事动态 霍尔木兹海峡安全威胁 外交谈判进展 三大关键变量局势任何风吹草动都可能引发油市新一轮风暴。 美联储主席鲍威尔警告2025年通胀恐再度攀升…
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